Demographic Briefs (The Public Purpose)

Letter to Vice-President Gore on
Erroneous Portland Speech Information

The Vice-President's office responded with a form letter that made it clear that no one had seriously considered the issues raise in the letter. Regrettably, this kind of sloppy research occurs somewhat frequently in the smart growth and new urbanist movement.

2 October 1998



The Vice-President
The White House
Washington, DC 20590

Subject: Erroneous Information in Recent Speech

Dear Mr. Vice-President:

I recently became aware of errors in the following paragraph of your September 2, 1998 Brookings Institution address.

    In the 1970's, Portland, Oregon was consuming 30,000 acres of its rich agricultural land every year, and threatening the pristine forests leading to Mount Hood. To protect the land, Portland passed a smart growth plan -- creating a more walkable, liveable community while preserving historic areas rather than builder farther and farther out. They were told that it would be impossible -- that the new emphasis on quality of life would force out businesses and force down property values. Instead, the opposite has come to pass: high-tech campuses sprung up, home values have increased, Portland's population has swelled with families fleeing sprawl and congestion elsewhere -- and a new light rail system has attracted 40% of all commuters in the city.

The points are as follows:

1. Portland was not consuming 30,000 acres of land every year in the 1970s. If it had, the urbanized area would have expanded by nearly 470 square miles during the decade. At the end of the decade, the total land area covered by the Portland urbanized area was 349 square miles. The 1970s expansion was barely 1/6th of the claim --- 82 square miles. In fact, after having adopted its urban growth boundary in the late 1970s, Portland's urbanized population density grew at a slower rate than any other western urbanized area with mor than one million population during the 1980s. Later data will not be available until after the 2000 decennial census (data from U.S. Census Bureau). Portland, which is less dense than most larger urbanized areas, can hardly be characterized as "walkable." Outside the small enclave of downtown, Portland's sprawl is no different than that of a myriad of other cities. And, its downtown is the result of history, not the more recently adopted land use policies.

2. Portland's light rail system does not carry 40 percent of the commuters in the city, or anywhere near such a number. In 1990,

  • 20.0 percent of downtown commuters were carried by buses and light rail (most by buses).

  • Among city of Portland commuters, 11.0 percent traveled by transit, with a minority of that number commuting by light rail

  • Among commuters in the metropolitan area, 5.4 percent traveled by transit --- and less than 10 percent of that number were on light rail.

  • All of the above data is from the U.S. Census Bureau. Again, later data will not be available until after the 2000 decennial census.

It is important for respected political leaders to use facts, not fiction to support their policy proposals. It is even more important now that the nation is wrestling with the implications of Presidential lying. I realize that your staff must rely on local sources for information such as this. Regrettably, Portland officials have a record of over-hype with respect to urban planning and transit that makes Vietnam enemy body counts look conservative. I hope you will refrain from using this erroneous information in the future.

Thank you for your consideration.

Sincerely,

Wendell Cox,
Principal

(c) 2001 www.demographia.com --- Wendell Cox Consultancy --- Permission granted to use with attribution.
Demographia is "pro-choice" with respect to urban development.
People should have the freedom to live and work where and how they like.

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