Hudson Bergen Cost Escalation History;
Ridership Falls Short

Projection MOS-1 MOS-2 MOS-3 MOS-1 and MOS-2 Total Miles in Calculation Cost per Mile
1993.01         $1,113 20.9 $53.3
1996.04 $624       $1,300 20.4 $63.7
1996.11 $992       $1,600 20.4 $78.4
1998.11 $992 $989 Note $1,982 Unknown 15.7 $126.2
1999.11 $992 $1,113 Note $2,105 Unknown 15.7 $134.1
Current Miles 9.6 6.1 4.7 15.7 20.4    
Source: Federal Transit Administration New Starts Reports (Annual)
Amounts in Millions of Year of Expenditure (Current) Dollars.
Note: Federal reports continue to place the cost of the entire 20.7 mile line at $2.0 billion, despite the fact that the cost of the first two segments now exceeds that amount. No estimate has been found for the cost of MOS-3 (4.7 miles).
1999 Cost per Mile is 152 percent higher than the 1993 projected cost (at that point part of the line was to be a busway)
1999 cost per mile is 110 percent higher than the 1996 projected cost, which is the earliest projection for the line in its current planned configuration. This does not include additional costs that will be assocated with MOS-3.
MOS -3 is likely to add between $300 million and $650 million to the currently estimated costs of the project (based upon national and local project data.

  Ridership Compared to Projection
Projected 20,000 ---
Actual (20001.04) 8,750 -56.3%
Source: USDOT Inspector General's report #RT-1999-123 and New Jersey Transit (2001.04.23).

(c) 2001 --- Wendell Cox Consultancy --- Permission granted to use with attribution.
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